Immigration and fertility rate – the two main reasons why numbers are declining.

Albanians are immigrating in considerable, women are giving birth to fewer children, older persons are living longer, the population is aging and shrinking. The population of Albania decreases every hour by 4 inhabitants. In one day we are 91 less Albanians, while in a year we decrease by an average of 33 thousand inhabitants. There are several reasons why we got here, but two are the most important: immigration and decrease in the fertility rate. In the “Depopulation” television series that started its broadcasting on Euronews Albania this Saturday, experts and representatives from UNFPA Albania office emphasized the importance of looking into these figures beyond the cold reporting of statistics, at the level of analysis and proposals for short-term and long-term policies.

The Head of UNFPA Albania office, Dr. Manuela Bello emphasized that UNFPA, in all policy or strategy development, is always guided by the human rights principles. She also emphasized that the real issue is not that people move from thevillage to a city, or from a country to another; the issue is not that the number of older persons is increasing, or that the fertility rate has decreased. What is important for us to focus on is analyze, be able to understand these dynamics in population shifts, anticipate changes and create appropriate skills and capacities to mitigate and cope with these demographic changes today and in the future.

The figures show that, after the 90s, the population of Albania fell drastically from 3.2 million to 2.4 million. In the first years after establishment of democracy, the only factor that affected the population decrease was immigration. According to INSTAT data, Albania counts an average of 50,000 people who immigrate in a year. Today, there are as many Albanians in Albania as they have immigrated, 2.4 million people.

Before the 90s, the immigration factor was zero. Therefore, the population knew only growth, adding here also the baby boom promoted by the policies of the communist era to increase the population. But everything turned upside down when the system changed.

Arjan Gjonça, Demographer and Professor at the London School of Economics, says that the decline in fertility is in the sametrajectory as the other countries in the world. What is worrying him is the unprecedented immigration. Gjonca declares:

“Immigration has not decreased at all, that is, in the last decade, people have immigrated, if you look at the numbers,around 48,000 people per year, compared to the previous decade. So, we continue to immigrate at the same rate. There are many theories to explain immigration, but I will focus on the one that is mentioned most often: they have no means to live. We have the theory of push factors and pull factors. If until 2011 or 2015 the driving factors were stronger, i.e. there was a higher level of poverty, now we are not looking at an absolute poverty level. We see great social inequalities, but we do not see, for example, the lack of jobs, or lack of good living economic conditions. What we are looking at are attractive factors, factors that make people want a better life and they want to enjoy this right.”

On the other hand, even the low fertility rate has done its job in changing the pyramid of the Albanian population. In the 1960s we had a high birth rate, 7 children per woman. As the years passed after the 90s, the number of births per woman decreased, until it went from 3.2 to 1.65 in 2011, to 1.32 in 2021 and finallyto 1.2 in 2023.

This concern was also raised in the studio of “Depopulation” series by the sociologist Gëzim Tushe.

“We have the highest rates of population aging in Europe. We can be compared with Portugal, with Spain with some other European countries because of the rhythm. Why? Because 33 years ago we were the youngest population in Europe with an average of 27 years and now we have reached to an average of 38 years old, when the upper limit has reached 42 years in France etc. In 30 years, the rates of aging are extraordinary. We had 1,450,000 school-age children in the 90s, today we have 400,000.”

Emira Galanxhi, demographer and statistician, speaking about the immigration figures, made this comment:

“Parents, thinking that their children can be better educated abroad, prepare them for this from the time they are in the 9th grade to learn and get good grades to go and be educated abroad. It is a kind of wishful planning. As far as immigration is concerned, everyone wants to be free. Until the 90s we were all closed in. With the establishment of democracy, everyone wanted to move and live where they wanted. Today young people, let us say it openly, do not like to work in villages in the countryside, so they first come to the city, then they find their own ways to get out of the country.”

Looking back over the years, the absolute number of births has been declining decade after decade. From 53 thousand births in 2001, to 34 thousand in 2011. Low, but favorable for population growth, as long as the number of deaths was at levels of about 20 thousand deaths per year. This produced a positive result for population growth. History changed in 2020-2021, when the number of deaths exceeded births, 30 thousand deaths per year. A turning point marked 2023, when births were 2 thousand more than deaths. A good sign, but still not enough for the demographic changes. What we are talking about are not just numbers spread over the years. We shall explain why: a child missing at birth in 2011 would now be a 13-year-old who, within a few years, would be back in the active workforce. Yes, there are at least 7,000 such missing births in the period from 2011 to 2021. And, while they are missing from the population pyramid, this is not the case with the older persons. In Albania, the percentage of people over 65 years is growing very fast and, likewise, the average life expectancy continues to increase to over 80 years.

Therefore, according to UNFPA, it is very important to take measures in this direction. The Head of UNFPA Albania Office, Dr. Manuela Bello made this summary of the interventions to be undertaken.

“There can be no policies that we can just copy from a certain country to implement in our country, there can be no repressive policies that tell us to do one, two, three, or four things the world has done to make what we want happen. If we want to increase fertility, we must first ensure that women and men are given the opportunity to have jobs that allow them flexi-time, not be forced to work 8 or 10 hours on end and no work-life balance. At the same time, they should be provided with a salary that will enable them to create a family, but also to maintain it, from the provision of housing,to services for kindergarten or day care. But there should also be some provision to pay the grandfather or grandmother who take care of the children.”

If the number of the general population, children, adolescents and people of working age decreases rapidly, the increase in the number of older persons will be intense during the first two decades. Their share of the total population is likely to increase steadily from 15.2% at the end of 2020 to almost 29% in 2050.